Primary Concerns
Election season has been in full swing for quite some time now, but with Iowa and New Hampshire behind us and Super Tuesday on the horizon, it’s only heating up from here. We are currently deep in the primary process that will culminate in the Democratic and Republican national conventions in July and August respectively. After that will be the general, where President Trump and one of the Democratic candidates will go head to head — and hopefully not fist to fist if some of the campaign rhetoric holds true. We all still have a while to go though.
Before Election Day in November and before the Conventions this summer, the presidential candidates will continue to fight through the primary process to get enough delegates to win the nomination.
If this all seems unnecessarily complicated, it’s because it is.
The process of the primaries, caucuses, and convention votes can be convoluted and confusing. This is made even worse because Democrats and Republicans vary in how they pick their candidate. Fortunately, the Republicans have much less to try and work through before November 2020. With President Trump running as an incumbent without any major opposition from his own party, the Republicans can cruise through the primary and convention process without much concern about who will be representing them. The Democrats, however, are pushing their way through a crowded, messy primary on their way to the convention. Since Republicans have an easy path this year, this will specifically discuss the Democratic primary process (but come back February 2024 for the Republican run-down).
Late, Not-So-Great ‘68
To really understand why Democrats primary the way they do, we need to look at the 1968 Democratic National Convention (DNC). Prior to ’68, the public did not have a vote in who became the presidential candidate. The selection process had evolved over the years from Congress picking the candidates to party leadership, bringing us to this notorious convention. Lyndon Johnson was president and facing a brutal primary as many liberals had soured on the Vietnam War and blamed LBJ for the continuing disaster. Unfortunately for the Democrats, party leadership was not ready to let LBJ go, resulting in a riot at the DNC as the public fought back against risking another Johnson term. This public reckoning led to an overhaul of the primary system. The party transitioned into letting the public vote and the process we see today began to take shape.
Iowa, Order, and “Wow Caucusing is Complicated”
In an attempt to fix the ’68 nightmare, the Democrats began staggering their primaries with Iowa going first starting in 1972. It wasn’t until Jimmy Carter ran for the presidency later in the 70s though that Iowa started becoming the behemoth it is today. While it is now the standard way to run for president, Carter changed the game by making a conscious effort to win Iowa specifically. When campaigning state-by-state and going in order of the primaries paid off for Carter, future candidates followed suit. Over the years, early primary states have become the focal points of presidential hopefuls, with Iowa carrying the most weight. As Des Moines Register political columnist Kathy O’Bradovich describes it,
“The really important thing to remember about Iowa is not that it’s first because it’s important. Iowa is important because it’s first.”
Iowa is closely followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. As we have already seen this cycle, the results of these early states play a crucial role in support and perceptions of campaigns. While candidates have gone on to win despite losing some of these early states, performance can heavily dictate how the rest of a campaign will go. Over performing can push a mid-tier candidate to the top as the public sees them as being more viable or solidify someone’s front runner status. Under performing, however, can mean the end of your run.
This ability to make or break a candidate’s chances is why the first states love their early voting status and why many people are now criticizing it. There has been push back over giving so much power to states that don’t reflect the country or party’s demographics. Iowa also has a painfully complicated caucusing process that we are seeing the repercussions of real time. While only 4 states and some of the territories still have caucuses instead of a more traditional vote– most states vote much the same way as you do for the general election– Iowa’s first-in-line status on top of caucusing starts a whirlwind of punditry and realigning up until the DNC.
Convening a Convention
Iowa starts the ball rolling and it continues to the summer with primaries happening most weeks until June. This culminates in the Democratic National Convention from July 13th through July 16th. Here the Democrats will finally pick a candidate via delegate votes. Delegates are what each candidate is accumulating during the primary process. With each primary, delegates are assigned to candidates based on the percentage of the vote they won. These pledged delegates are committed to voting for their respective candidates at the convention to reflect the will of the people in their states. To further complicate things, there are also superdelegates whose votes are up in the air. Superdelegates are typically important members of the party establishment like Democratic National Committee officials and former presidents whose votes are not pledged to a given candidate prior to the convention.
After the controversy over Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders at the DNC last cycle, superdelegate powers are changing. In the first round of voting, superdelegates will not be allowed to vote. If no one receives a majority of the 3,979 pledged delegates, the superdelegates will vote in the 2nd and potentially 3rd votes. When all is said and done, whoever wins the majority of delegates will be the Democratic choice for the presidency that will move on to face Trump in the general.
Super Tuesday and Then Some
With the Nevada and South Carolina primaries behind us, things begin to move faster starting March 3rd on Super Tuesday, the first major flood of delegates, with 14 states holding their primaries that day.
Super Tuesday Voting Includes: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad.
With so many candidates still in the race for the Democratic nomination, we may finally begin to see the field par down after this Super Tuesday vote.
If you’re a Democrat in a state that hasn’t voted yet (i.e. not Iowa or New Hampshire), get ready to vote! States choose who gets to vote in each primary with open states allowing anyone to vote in the primary, closed states only allowing you to vote in the primary if you are registered to that party, and semi-closed states that allow you to pick which primary to vote in if you’re unaffiliated. Click here to see an interactive map for the rest of the election cycle and see when you’re state votes. Check out what your state rules are, make sure you’re registered, and stay engaged!
Read More:
How the Iowa caucus results will actually work — and why 2020’s could be more confusing than ever (Vox)
Here’s How The New Democratic Party Rules About Delegates Will Impact The 2020 Election(WBUR)
How Do the Iowa Caucuses Work, and How Are They Different in 2020? (Washington Post)
History of the Iowa Caucuses, America’s Kickoff Presidential Contest (Fox News)
Besides Iowa, What Other States Have Caucuses? (New York Times)
The 1968 scandal that gave us the modern primary system (Vox)
What states vote on Super Tuesday? (Fox News)
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